But Extreme Events

Connected to #ButThePress, therefore to #ButAlarmism, thus to #ButCAGW.

Examples

Fewer people die from floods, not more (because of higher wealth and resilience).

(Bjorn)

Have disasters become more costly because of human-caused climate change?

(Junior)

Objections and Replies

Cold. Cold is more dangerous tu humans
☞ A few degrees more won’t eliminate the need to heat yourself.

Disasters. Disasters have not become more costly because of AGW
☞ Well, actually, the SREX says that assigning ‘low confidence’ in observed changes in a specific extreme on regional or global scales neither implies nor excludes the possibility of changes in this extreme.

Every. Every extreme weather event is caused by AGW is highly unscientific
☞ The claim is rather that “a changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events, and can result in unprecedented extreme weather and climate events.”

Felt. The IPCC says that extreme events are not likely to be felt until 2040
☞ The IR6 rather claims that “human influence has likely increased the chance of compound extreme events since the 1950s” (search for “A.3.5”).

Killing. Extreme weather is not killing more
☞ AGW might have many other impacts before killing people.

Normalized Damage. There is little evidence to support claims that any part
☞ Junior’s results are not the only ones in town, and he’s on board with the idea that AGW poses risks and deserves significant action in response. And attribution is less interesting than risk coverage. More people are at greater risk of hurricane hazards, many in uninsured regions.

Resilience. We know that the human specie endured worse
☞ Indeed. Modern civilization affords survivors the luxury to complain about extreme events.

Unknowns. There are so many variables at play is unclear how
☞ We may not know everything, but we sure don’t know nothing.

Unscientific. That extreme events is caused by AGW is an unscientific conj
☞ According to the Third National Climate Assessment, some extreme weather and climate events have increased in recent decades, and new and stronger evidence confirms that some of these increases are related to human activities.

Worse. It could be worse
☞ Sure, Granpa.

Notes

{} Name. We should name hurricanes after well-known climate change contrarians.

Resources

2021-02; Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world

2021; Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Overview; DOI: 10.25921/stkw-7w73

2020? Extreme Weather and Climate Change.

2014; Extreme Weather; RTFR.

2012; Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation; RTFR.

1992-01; Statistics of Extreme Events with Application to Climate; simple and well-written.

Readings

2021-10; A Comprehensive Analysis of Hurricane Damage across the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic Coasts Using Geospatial Big Data; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi10110781

2021-01; Heed blame for extreme weather; https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-00185-x

2020-12. Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70816-2

2020-12; Severe weather event attribution: Why values won’t go away; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsa.2020.09.003

2019-11; Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912277116

2011-12; A trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disasters. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0331-2

Climateball Episodes

2016-03; Extreme Events; the time Junior tried to peddle his booklet at AT’s.

2014-03; MIT Climate Scientist Responds on Disaster Costs And Climate Change.

2011-08; Roger Rabbit; James has no problem pinning down our Artful Dodger.

2010-02; Zugzwang; Eli parses Junior’s wording