“But Da Paws”

Pause, what pause?


The planet is no longer warming. The brief warming episode of the late 20th century completed its course in the mid 1990s, and is now extinct. These are now uncontroversial statements.


My take is that we are still in the multi-decadal hiatus that began around 2000. The 2014-2018 was a subdecadal blip in the PDO. I expect this hiatus to continue at least another decade

(Judy, vintage 2021-04-27)

Objections and Replies

Since 2002. The CO2 increased yet temperatures haven’t budged since 2002—
☞ The forcing is logarithmic in CO2, consistent with the temperature rise (H/T Nate).

Not Enough Stations. You managed to detect by using 76 stations—
☞ Since twenty sided icosahedron is not a bad approximation to the globe, the averge global temperature can be well approximated by integrating a microset set of sixty , one or each side of a buckyball. 76 is , if anything, overdoing it (Russell).

Santer. I am just using the ‘standard’ of 17 years established by Santer—
☞ Thanks. I forgot that Ben was that powerful. Da Paws was between 1998 and 2013. That’s 15 years. Are you suggesting there was no Paws?

Travesty. Kevin admitted privately Da Paws and that it was a travesty that—
☞ Slow down, cowboy. Kevin publicly tried to account for the energy imbalance {4}, the topic of the travesty quote {5}.

☞ After the pause comes the SURGE.


{1} Pause in Da Paws. There seems to be a pause in “but da paws” among contrarians. No need to wonder why.

{2} Escalator. Da Paws relies on Da Escalator.

{3} Genuine. According to Richard Betts, “there was genuine interest from the part of the climate science community that specifically wants to understand and predict internal variability in the climate system.”

{4} Imbalance. The main problem is that “increasing greenhouse gases should have led to increasing warming.” So where has the energy gone?

{5} CGs. Try not to publicize stolen emails or to use the contrarian brand to refer to them. Allude to them indirectly. Quote only the relevant bits.


The Escalator; the best Gif John’s ever produced.

2015-10; Are pauses followed by surges?

Further Readings

2018-12; A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342

2017-05; Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’. doi.org/10.1038/nature22315

2016-02; Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown. doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2938

2015-08; Has there been a hiatus? doi.org/10.1126/science.aac9225

Climateball Episodes